Prof. Scott Bainbridge (AIMS) and Dr. Scarla Weeks (UQ)
While the 2013-14 summer was cool, satellite data show that conditions have been developing that could lead to a warmer summer in 2014-15. Neutral ENSO conditions continued in the Pacific through January to May but the eastward propagation of an intense wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin Wave, across the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months, has led to a 70-80% probability of transition to El Niño conditions by spring 2014.